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Jet Sales Projected To Total USD4.5 Trillion By 2031

by Mike Godfrey,, Washington

06 July 2012

The Current Market Outlook report, updated by Boeing on July 3, 2012, says the market for new airplanes over the next 20 years will be worth an estimated USD4.5 trillion, with demand for 34,000 new airplanes over the period.

The report says that airline traffic is to grow at a 5% annual rate over the next two decades, with cargo traffic projected to grow at a faster annual rate of 5.2%.

Spending will largely be divided between single-aisle and twin-aisle purchases, worth USD2.03bn and 2.08bn respectively over the next twenty years. This will see the twin-aisle segment grow from a market share of 19% currently, to 23% by 2031. The large aircraft market, to 2031, is expected to be worth USD280bn for aircraft manufacturers, while the regional jet market will provide opportunities for around USD80bn in sales. Boeing has predicted that widebody aircraft, such as its 787 Dreamliner, will account for almost USD2.5 trillion dollars worth of new airline deliveries with 40% of this demand coming from Asian airlines.

In its outlook, Boeing said robust growth in China, India and other emerging markets is a major factor in the increased deliveries over the next 20 years. Low cost carriers, with their ability to stimulate traffic with low fares, are growing faster than the market as a whole. There is also a strong demand to replace older, less fuel-efficient airplanes for updated models. Replacement accounts for 41% of new deliveries in the forecast, with the remainder coming directly from the expansion of airlines' operations.

Boeing predicts the market for new airplanes will become more geographically-balanced over the next two decades. Asia-Pacific, including China, will continue to lead the way in total airplane deliveries. Asia-Pacific operators are expected to order some 12,030 new aircraft over the next twenty years, followed by Europe (with 7,760), North America (7,290), Latin America (2,510), the Middle East (2,370), the former Soviet nations, the Commonwealth of Independent States (1,140) and Africa (900).

In releasing the new Outlook, the company says the multi-annual forecast reflects the strength of the commercial aviation market, which Randy Tinseth, Vice President of Marketing at Boeing believes has overcome the crisis with marked resilience to show strong growth prospects. "The world's aviation market is broader, deeper and more diverse than we've ever seen it," Tinseth said. "It has proven to be resilient even during some very challenging years and is driving production rate increases across the board."

On the growth prospects of the cargo market, Boeing has said it has revised the sector's forecast due to the sluggish conditions experienced since the crisis. Despite the lacklustre growth however, the world freighter fleet is projected to nearly double from 1,740 aircraft today to 3,200 at the end of the forecast period. Additions to the fleet will include 940 new-production freighters (market value of USD250bn) and 1,820 airplanes converted from passenger models. Large (more than 80 tonnes capacity) freighters will account for 680 new-build airplanes. Medium (40 to 80 tonnes) freighters will total 260 airplanes. No new standard-body freighters (less than 45 tonnes) will be required, but there will be 1,120 standard-body conversions.

TAGS: aviation

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