Will Charlie McCreevy's Luck Survive A Tough Budget?

by Justin Gorringe, Tax-News.com, London

30 October 2001

As Irish Finance Minister Charlie McCreevy prepares for his next budget, with an election around the corner, he faces policy challenges far removed from the relatively easy ride he had for his previous four budgets, when the Irish economy was booming and Irish journalists' eyes were smiling on him. Now economists say the country is already in recession, Mr McCreevy is beset by conflicting demands from trade unions and employers' organisations which he can't possibly meet, and journalists are ready to pounce if he makes a mistake.

The Irish Times says however that Mr McCreevy is lucky, and never more so because his political opponents are grey, anonymous figures who won't know how to take advantage of the economy's problems to pound the minister when he produces an inevitably disappointing budget.

First of all, says the paper, Mr McCreevy was lucky to inherit the healthiest set of Government books in the State's history. The Exchequer was in surplus and the economy growing at a record pace. Mr McCreevy was able to do something that previous holders of his office were only able to dream about: he could actually make policy rather than just fight fires. He has achieved the individualisation of the tax system and the move to tax credits. He also created the National Pension Reserve Fund and the Special Savings Investment Accounts (although figures out today show that take up of the SSIAs has been far below expectations).

The Times then examines its own records to see how the Finance Minister's opponents fared against him in poloitical infighting during the four years of the government's reign. They are Mr Derek McDowell, the Dublin Labour TD, and Mr Jim Mitchell, who also doubles as Fine Gael's deputy leader. Before the ousting of John Bruton as leader, the finance brief was held by Mr Michael Noonan, current leader of Fine Gael. Mr McDowell has appeared in some 304 news stories - or six times a month - between the 1997 election and last week. His name only appears in the same story as the Minister for Finance 157 times, which is a much less impressive three times a month. Not what you would describe as political heavy-lifting, says the Times.

The most recent occasion they appeared in the same story was on September 6th, more than a month and half ago, when Mr McDowell commented on the Exchequer returns saying: 'As a result of this Government's mishandling of the economy we have little to show for the unprecedented level of economic growth.' Mr McCreevy's response was not recorded but the blow was obviously not mortal.

Mr Mitchell's record is even less impressive. Since taking on the mantle of finance spokesman from Michael Noonan in February he has made it to the news pages 145 times, a chunky 16 times a month. He appeared in tandem with the finance minister a mere 20 times which works out at less than 1.24 times a month, making Mr McDowell look positively industrious by comparison.

Mr McCreevy on the other hand made it into the paper 1,045 times. The Times finishes its penetrating political analysis by comparing leader Bertie Ahern to Napoleon (for having lucky generals) - and he must be hoping that the comparison stops there.

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