VAN Indicator Reveals Mixed Sentiment In Key Markets

by Phillip Morton, Investors Offshore.com

08 April 2005

The VAN Macro Sentiment Indicators for the month of April, compiled by Van Hedge Fund Advisors International, has revealed a mixed outlook on the direction of US equities, the US Dollar and Treasury bonds among hedge fund managers.

According to the survey of fund managers employing a macro view and managing on aggregate more than $30 billion in assets, 44% expect the benchmark S&P 500 Index to move higher in April, although 39% are anticipating a fall in the index during the month.

On the US Dollar, the managers continued to hold their generally bullish stance, with just under half (48%) expecting the currency to appreciate this month. Just under one-third (30%) believe the dollar will weaken in April, although this is a lower percentage than in March when bears made up 42% of the survey.

However, perhaps the most marked shift in sentiment relates to the US Treasury 10-year Note, although opinion remains somewhat divided. According to Van, 48% of the managers anticipate a rise in the price of the T-Note in April, against 39% who are bearish. Last month’s indicator revealed that only 25% held a bullish view of this market, while 54% were bearish.

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