Sentiment Indicator Reveals Fund Mangers Remain Dollar Bearish

by Phillip Morton, Investors Offshore.com

08 July 2004

Van Hedge Fund Advisors International this week released its monthly sentiment indicators for three key financial markets.

The purpose of the indicators, usually published on or around the fifth of each month, is to reveal how these managers believe the S&P 500, the US dollar and the US Treasury 10-year Note will perform over the current month.

This month the indicator shows that managers continue to maintain their bearish stance on the US dollar, with 48% reporting that they expect to see the dollar end July lower. They were however, less pessimistic than last month when 66% were bearish of the dollar.

While the group was bullish on the US Treasury 10-year Note in June, they have shifted to become slightly bearish for July. Last month, 44% expected the price of the T-Notes to appreciate against 28% who expected a fall. In July, 36% of managers are bullish of this market whilst 40% are bearish.

Meanwhile, the managers’ outlook on the S&P 500 is now evenly divided, although less bearish than last month when 48% of managers anticipated a fall in the value of the index. In July, only 36% are bearish with another 36% holding a bullish viewpoint.

The VAN Macro Sentiment Indicators are based on the outlook of hedge fund managers employing a macro view and who manage, in aggregate, more than $33 billion in assets.

Recommended