Pressure Grows To Resolve Greek/Turkish Cyprus Problem

by Lorys Charalambous, Tax-News.com, Cyprus

26 October 2001

On a visit to Cyprus yesterday, European Union Commission President Romano Prodi said that Cyprus should be a member of the enlarged EU by 2004, adding that Cypriots would then be able to vote in the European parliamentary elections of that year. Mr Prodi said he appreciated the fact that Cyprus had expressed opposition to the September 11 attacks and opposed terrorism. “More importantly, Cyprus has taken practical measures (to combat international terrorism), and these have been deeply appreciated in the EU.”

Addressing a plenary session of the House of Representatives, Prodi said that as an EU member Cyprus will have one seat in the enlarged Council of Ministers, representing both the southern and northern parts of the island. Prodi told his audience, which included Cyprus President Glafcos Clerides, that the EU would welcome a joint entry of Greek and Turkish Cypriots with great joy. In his response, House President Demetris Christofias said that he was pleased of the assurance that a united Cyprus of Greek and Turkish Cypriots will eventually join: “Our wish is for Cyprus to join united, but this must not be misinterpreted and we cannot accept the threats by Turkey and Turkish Cypriot leader Rauf Dektash, especially his unrealistic demand for the recognition of his self-styled state in the north," he said.

The EU Helsinki summit earlier this year pledged that a solution to the Cyprus problem is not a prerequisite for admission; but some individual member states have since appeared to waver away from this position, notably France. Greece is threatening to veto the next round of eastward enlargement if Cyprus is not included, while Turkey forcefully opposes Cypriot EU membership without a settlement of the Cyprus question.

Not everyone is as sanguine as Romano Prodi about Cyprus's chance of accession. A special briefing on Cyprus included in the Economist Intelligence Unit's latest Country Report on the island says there is a significant risk that the Greek/Turkish dispute over the Cyprus accession bid will cause substantial delays to the EU's eastward enlargement (with a 20% probability) and a small risk that it could derail the entire enlargement process (10% probability).

The likelihood that the Cyprus question will be resolved before accession is only moderate (25%), says the report. EU membership of Cyprus without a prior settlement could cause an aggressive reaction by Turkey (10%), leading to a serious deterioration in EU-Turkish relations. More likely, however, is a measured response, which could be facilitated by an EU commitment to begin formal accession negotiations with Turkey. The overall probability of Cyprus joining, united or not, is seen to be very strong (85%).

Analysing the attitudes of the various players, the report says that Turkey fears a greater influence of the Greek Cypriots once they have joined the EU, but is also reluctant to compromise its own hopes for EU membership by reacting militarily if the EU approves Greek Cypriot accession without a prior settlement. Greece, it says, is drawn between a strong desire to support the Greek Cypriots in their bid for EU membership and the desire to play a constructive role in the EU.

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