ING Warns Over Hong Kong Econony

by Mary Swire, Tax-News.com, Hong Kong

11 September 2002

ING Financial Markets has warned that the SAR's sluggish economy could swell the jurisdiction's deficit to around HK$74 billion this fiscal year.

Speaking to the Hong Kong Standard, chief economist for the Netherlands-based investment bank, Tim Condon predicted that if this comes to pass, ratings agencies such as Moody's Investor Services are likely to downgrade the jurisdiction's ratings outlook.

'The growth slowdown highlights the government's fiscal troubles,' Mr Condon observed this week. 'Government spending was on track, but revenue fell short.'

He urged the Hong Kong authorities to attempt to spur growth through cuts in profits and salaries taxes, and recommended that integration with mainland China be accelerated.

Cautioning against any tightening of public spending, the ING economist explained that: 'We continue to believe the government's approach to dealing with the fiscal deficit will make matters worse. Contradictory fiscal policies in a slow-growing deflationary economy helped lead Argentina to ruin.'

The SAR government was also recently warned by business advisory group, the Economist Corporate Network (ECN) that its forecast for economic growth was too optimistic given the current climate:

'[The government's] 1.5% forecast is rather optimistic because the third quarter will be heavily affected by the US economy and its second quarter growth,' ECN regional economist Connie Bolland observed earlier this month, predicting a more far conservative 0.7% growth rate for this year.

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