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IMF Concludes 2009 Article IV Consultation With St. Kitts And Nevis,
by Mike Godfrey, Tax-News.com, Washington
Wednesday, June 10, 2009
The IMF has concluded an Article IV consultation with St. Kitts and Nevis. After
several years of robust growth, the economy of St. Kitts and Nevis has weakened
markedly. The IMF believes that, while the global downturn and heavy debt burden
are likely to weigh heavily on near-term growth, the economy is well placed
to achieve strong growth over the medium term provided that appropriate policies
and reforms are implemented.
The island of Nevis, in particular, has been badly affected by Hurricane Omar
which passed the region in October 2008, with the island’s largest hotel
likely to remain closed during 2009 due to damage from the hurricane’s
storm surge. After growing by 3.2% in 2008, St. Kitts and Nevis’s real
output is projected to contract by 1.2% in 2009. Higher food and fuel prices
led to a pick-up in inflation in the first ten months of 2008, peaking in October
2008 at 8.3% before moderating to 7.6% at the end of 2008. Inflation is projected
to ease further in 2009 on the back of lower oil prices.
The government’s commitment to debt reduction resulted in a fiscal primary
surplus in 2008, more than 5% of GDP, for the fourth consecutive year, helping
to lower the public debt ratio by 20 percentage points over the past four years.
However, the primary surplus is projected to decline to 2.5% of GDP in 2009,
largely due to an expected drop in revenues without concomitant cuts in expenditures,
and the debt ratio is expected to trend up again. With a debt ratio at more
than 175% of GDP by end-2008, debt service comprises nearly a quarter of government
revenues, leaving no space for fiscal policy to respond to the adverse shocks.
According to the IMF, fiscal consolidation will be important not only for restoring debt sustainability,
but also for supporting competitiveness, maintaining stability, and underpinning
the Eastern Caribbean Currency Union (ECCU) quasi-currency board arrangement.
Financial sector vulnerability stems from banks’ continued high government
exposure and a needed further strengthening of supervision of the non-bank sector, says the IMF.
Moreover the IMF warns that should the global slowdown be prolonged, the adverse impact could
spread to the banking sector through a rise in nonperforming loans. The insurance
sector, meanwhile, is grappling with the fallout of CL Financial Group’s
problems. The IMF endorsed plans to put in place an effective single regulatory
unit to include the non-bank financial sector and efforts to coordinate with
other regional governments to address the regional financial turmoil in the wake of the
CL Financial Group collapse.
The authorities have made a request for an Emergency Natural Disaster Assistance
(ENDA) purchase equivalent to 25% of quota (SDR 2.225 million). Although Hurricane
Omar struck in October 2008, the full impact due to the indefinite closure of
a major tourism resort on Nevis, has been slow to evolve. The authorities are
attempting to address the effects of the hurricane, but face severe financing
constraints. Fund financing is expected to partly offset the balance of payments
impact, estimated at 3.5% of GDP due largely to a decline in tourism receipts.
The IMF had the following comments:
Given the continued large financing needs, the IMF want the authorities to
push ahead with their goal of achieving even larger primary surpluses over the
medium term. They should strengthen expenditure control and introduce further
structural fiscal reforms including, most critically, the implementation of
the VAT, the IMF believes. The IMF also encouraged the authorities to tighten oversight of the
broader public sector; work closely with donors to tap additional grants or
highly concessional loans; accelerate land and/or other asset sales to lower
debt more rapidly; and strengthen debt management capacity. Fiscal consolidation
is important in order to support competitiveness and underpin the ECCU’s
quasi-currency board arrangement, in the view of the IMF. Maintaining competitiveness in the context
of relatively high wage levels and a highly competitive tourism market will
require sustained efforts to improve the business climate and labour market, noted the IMF.
While noting the country’s large public debt and inherent vulnerability,
the IMF acknowledged the authorities’ exemplary record of debt service
on external obligations and their resolve to sustain fiscal consolidation, foster
private sector-led growth, and work closely with the Fund in pursuing their
reform strategy. A full-fledged contingency and crisis preparedness plan, including
the identification of emergency fiscal measures was recommended.
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