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IMF Concludes Article IV Consultation With Vanuatu,
by Ulrika Lomas, Tax-News.com, Brussels
Thursday, March 05, 2009
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has concluded an Article IV consultation
with Vanuatu, and released an IMF Staff Mission statement.
"An IMF mission, led by Nita Thacker of the Asia and Pacific Department,
visited Port Vila during February 18-26 to hold discussions on the 2009 Article
IV consultation. The mission met with representatives of the government and
the private sector to discuss recent economic developments and the impact of
the global slowdown on the macroeconomic outlook for Vanuatu."
"Driven by strong growth in the tourism and construction sectors, and
higher-than-expected donor inflows, real GDP is estimated to have grown by 6.6%
in 2008. Inflation rose from 4.1% year-on-year in 2007 to 5.8% year-on-year
in 2008, reflecting the effects of higher international prices of food and fuel,
higher credit growth, and somewhat higher-than-budgeted spending. Despite the
higher spending, the fiscal surplus increased to 2.3% of GDP due to significant
overperformance on revenues, mainly VAT, reflecting buoyant economic activities
and improved tax compliance. The Reserve Bank of Vanuatu relaxed its monetary
stance in December, in part, to ease the tightening in the domestic liquidity
conditions."
"While the effects of the global slowdown, especially the slowdown in
Australia and New Zealand, the largest sources of tourism revenues and foreign
direct investment (FDI), are yet to manifest themselves in aggregate measures
of activity, strains are beginning to show in some areas. Most notably, indications
are that new construction activity, funded by large capital inflows from Australia
and to a lesser extent New Zealand, has begun to slow. While tourist arrivals
remain strong, spending by tourists has begun to decline. That said, some of
the adverse impact on activity should be offset by donor inflows, which are
expected to remain strong. In addition, the recent easing in monetary policy
and a more accommodative fiscal stance for 2009 should help to cushion the impact
on growth. GDP growth is expected to be in the 3-4% range in 2009 and recover
thereafter. Inflation is expected to moderate from last year's level, reflecting
lower commodity prices. Official international reserves are expected to remain
strong as aid-related inflows continue to finance the bulk of imports."
"In the event of a sharper-than-expected slowdown, the government has
some scope to use temporary fiscal stimulus measures given the strong fiscal
position and the low stock of public debt. There is also some scope to ease
monetary policy. However, given recent excessive credit growth, the Reserve
Bank needs to monitor bank balance sheets, which could be adversely affected
by the slowdown."
"Progress is being made on structural reforms in some areas. A significant
development in the past year has been the deregulation of the telecommunications
sector, which has increased the usage of mobile phone services fivefold. While
efforts are underway to improve road infrastructure and expand port facilities
with assistance from donors, more needs to be done. Further reforms are needed
to improve the efficiency of public enterprises and improve the budget framework
to establish transparency and accountability. In this context, adequate safeguards
should be put in place on the Vanuatu Agricultural Development Bank, including
placing it under central bank supervision, to ensure that it operates on commercial
principles."
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