Economists from several leading international investment banks have revised their economic growth forecasts for Hong Kong upwards, citing an increase in consumer spending in the second quarter of 2004 as the reason.
According to a report in the Hong Kong Standard, HSBC and Merrill Lynch on Friday revised their forecasts to 7.8% and 8% respectively, whilst Credit Suisse First Boston, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs and DBS Bank (HK) raised their economic growth predictions to between 7% and 7.7% on Monday.
However, despite consumer spending growth of 11% in the second quarter of this year, many observers have suggested that it is unlikely that the private consumption boom can be sustained, especially given the ending of deflation.
CSFB concurred with this viewpoint on Monday, revising its 2005 forecast down from 3.9% to 3.5%, and observing that:
"The second quarter of 2004 was probably the peak of this business cycle."
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