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EC Figures Suggest Maltese Growth Forecast Is Over-Optimistic

by Phillip Morton, Investor Offshore.com

22 January 2009

The European Commission has released details of an interim forecast which suggests that Malta will experience ‘sluggish’ economic growth for 2009 at 0.7%, falling from 2.1% in 2008. Inflation is likely to fall to 1.9% in 2009.

The Commission however has suggested that economic growth in Malta will recover in late 2009, predicting growth of 1.3% for 2010. Unemployment is expected to rise from 6.5% in 2008, to 7.9% in 2010. The Commission has warned that Malta will experience significantly reduced revenues as a result of the downturn, although the budget deficit will moderate from 3.5% of gross domestic product (GDP) last year to 2.6% this year - within the parameters set by the EU Growth and Stability Pact underpinning the euro currency.

The Commission's projections have fallen some way short of the Maltese government’s own forecast of 2.5% economic growth in 2009. The government had also predicted that the budget deficit would be much lower, at 1.6%.

Malta, despite a 1.4% projected slowdown, is likely to be hit less severely than many of its European counterparts however, and will be one of only nine member states attaining positive growth this year, according to the EC's forecast.

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