Almost 70,000 demonstrators, mostly Turkish Cypriots, and amounting to one-third of the total population of the northern part of Cyprus, demonstrated yesterday in northern Nicosia in support of the island's reunification, and against their recalcitrant leader Rauf Denktash who continues to oppose the UN's peace plan.
It is thought that fewer than half of the north's citizens are Turkish Cypriot, with the remainder being Turkish immigrants, meaning that a very high proportion of Turkish Cypriots joined the rally. They waved olive branches and EU flags, urging Mr Denktash to resign or accept the UN plan.
Since 1974's invasion, the Turkish republic of Northern Cyprus has been recognised only by Turkey and has been able to rely on its unquestioning support. But the dominant figure in the Turkish government, Tayyip Erdogan, has said that the UN reunification plan is an acceptable basis for negotiation, and has come close to criticising Mr Denktash for his intransigence.
After Turkish and Greek Cypriot leaders failed to reach an agreement on the UN plan at the EU summit in Copenhagen in December which invited Cyprus to join the Union, the UN set a date of February 28th for agreement in principle, failing which the EU will accept the southern, Greek Cypriot-controlled part of the island on its own.
Many observers think that Turkey's failure to seal an agreement in Copenhagen may be fatal to the prospects of the UN plan, since the government of the south has now achieved unconditional membership of the EU, and may see the north, in its present decayed state, more as a bed of nettles than as a promised land. At the minimum, negotiations are now more, not less difficult.
Despite Erdogan's positive statements, Turkey's attitude is ambivalent. If
it allows what amounts to one of its provinces to join the EU while it remains
outside, economic and travel consequences will be awkward, and it might calculate
that retaining the north as a thorn in the EU's flesh is more helpful to its
own membership bid than giving up its claim on what now amounts to a part of
the EU in all but name.
Turkey is therefore demanding special arrangements with the EU on freedom of
movement, goods and persons between Turkey and the northern part of Cyprus,
and will not agree to the UN plan if these are not granted.
From the Greek Cypriot side, the date of February 28th looks particularly difficult in the light of an upcoming presidential election, which has now turned into a three-way race, with Attorney-General Alecos Markides challenging incumbent President Glafcos Clerides from his own party - the 83-year old Clerides has served two terms but is offering himself for a 16-month term in order to see Cyprus safely inside the EU. But the increasingly bad-tempered contest can only be a major distraction from the UN negotiation.
UN special Cyprus envoy Alvaro de Soto is due back on the island today, with direct talks set to resume between Denktash and Clerides. But they have been getting nowhere for more than a year, and without a definite push from Turkey there can be little hope of a resolution now. Denktash said on Monday that his side did not have any information on how the talks would be resumed. “Will we hold face-to-face talks or proximity talks? We do not know anything at this point," he said after meeting Turkish Cypriot party leaders. Opinion among the Turkish political parties is said to be split on the future conduct of the talks, while the always-important Turkish military is demanding continued influence in Cyprus, something which hardly features in the UN plan.
De Soto is insisting that the revised UN plan, as presented before Copenhagen, cannot be much altered, but can be made subject to minor 'balancing' adjustments. ''In our view," he said, "the (UN) plan represents a balanced approach to the problem, fair to everyone. If the two sides agree on changes and preserve the overall balance, changes can be made."
"We may reach a solution at the last moment," de Soto went on glumly. "Unfortunately, a solution could not be reached so far. The plan was presented to the sides. I hope that they would send their response soon.”
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