Brussels Ponders A Possible Repeat Irish No To Nice

by Ulrika Lomas, Tax-News.com, Brussels

07 August 2002

Although the Irish Government is pulling out all the stops to make sure that the second running of a referendum on the EU's pre-enlargement Nice Treaty is a success (last year the Irish stunned the EU by voting against the treaty in a first referendum), thoughts in Brussels are turning to the question of what to do if the Irish say no a second time.

The favoured option is to include those elements of Nice that are vital to enlargement in candidate countries' accession treaties, due for ratification in 2003, including the number of votes each country has in the Council of Ministers, the number of MEPs in the European parliament and the allocation of one European commissioner to each member state. Some people fear that the French in particular might refuse this route, pointing to the current Amsterdam treaty, which says the EU should not enlarge above 20 members without "a comprehensive institutional review". At the time of that treaty, France, Belgium and Italy issued a declaration emphasising that institutional reinforcement was an "indispensable condition" for the first accessions.

As part of the run-up to the new referendum, Ireland's Minister of Foreign Affairs, Brian Cowen, recently issued a White Paper on the Nice Treaty. Introducing it, the Minister said: 'While Nice is hugely important in what it does, its content is relatively modest. It paves the way to enlargement. But it does not fundamentally alter the nature of the European Union; it does not disrupt the balances between the institutions and among the member-states; it preserves Ireland's national vital interests. But I fully accept that the debate on this occasion, no more than last time, will not be largely about the detail of the Treaty of Nice. It is fundamentally about Ireland's place in Europe.

'Thirty years ago, we were about to join the EEC. There was excitement about the challenge that lay ahead. We had always looked to Europe as our home. We wanted to reclaim our rightful place there.

'In the intervening years, Ireland has changed and developed. So too has the Union of which we are part. As the relationship has matured and deepened, it has grown more complex. We cannot ignore this reality. In June last year, the Irish people made it very clear that all is not as it was. Too much had been taken for granted; issues had not been sufficiently explored; communication had not been what it should have been.

'We have heard this message loud and clear. I know that it has also been heard in Brussels and in the other capitals of the Union. It is a serious message. It deserved and required a serious response. In the Seville Declarations, in the new Constitutional amendment, in our National Forum and in the European Convention, in Oireachtas reform, we have been seeking to craft that response, and to take the people's concerns fully on board.'

'Membership of the Union has been and remains absolutely fundamental to our prosperity and economic success,' said Mr Cowen. 'A definitive No to Nice would be deeply damaging.'

'The Government certainly does not view Europe through rose-coloured spectacles. We have emerged successfully from tough negotiations in the past. And we will negotiate equally effectively in the future - including on issues like the CAP. In the debate on the Future of Europe, we are advancing our own vision - one in which the continued centrality of the nation state is key.

'Nice is, first and last, about enlargement. It is about giving other European countries - many of whom were relatively recently liberated from external domination - the same opportunities that Ireland received 30 years ago. It is about making Europe as a whole, including Ireland, more stable, more secure and more prosperous.

'It is the privilege of our generation to be part of a great European endeavour. As a broad-minded people, more confident and outward looking than at any time in our history, I believe that we will rise to the challenge of enlargement, and say Yes to Nice and to Europe.'

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