Bleak Prospects For Cyprus Resolution

by Lorys Charalamabous, Tax-News.com, Cyprus

27 February 2004

After several days of talks on a prospective Cyprus settlement between Greek and Turkish Cypriot leaders Tasso Papadopoulos and Rauf Denktash, and an outpouring of generally hostile commentary in the Cypriot press, most of the goodwill generated in New York by Kofi Annan's skilful diplomacy seems to have been dissipated.

As most Jeremiahs expected, there appears little chance that the local leaders will succeed in agreeing on anything, and it will probably require the intervention of Greece and Turkey, as foreseen by United Nation's plan, and a certain amount of 'filling-in the blanks' by Kofi Annan, before there is a form of settlement that can be presented for approval by the populations of the two halves of the fractured island.

A new element, little considered in previous rounds of talks, is the economic cost and consequences of any settlement, which seem to far outstrip the capacity of the island. Costs of many billions of dollars are being touted around, while the 'derogations' from the EU's acquis which will apply in the Turkish Cypriot sector of the proposed federation are seen by most local pundits as hobbling the island's economic future to an unacceptable extent.

Worst of all, there is so far little indication that the Greek Cypriots - unlike their northern brethren - are minded to approve any imaginable version of the Annan plan. Polls are showing substantial majorities against the plan, and the government has so far done little to encourage a vote in favour, which its individual members privately don't even want in most cases.

Of course, neither side wants to be seen as having obstructed the negotiations, so both are continuing to pretend that they are in favour of a solution - but each seems to be praying that the other will be the one to incur international odium for having brought on a failure. Now, if ever, is the time for a statesman to come forward. 'The hour maketh the man', it is said - but where is he?

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