Bears Outnumber Bulls In Key Markets According To Sentiment Indicator

by Carla Johnson, Investors Offshore.com

04 November 2004

The Van Hedge monthly sentiment indicator for the month of November shows that hedge fund managers are mainly neutral to bearish over the prospects for US equities and bonds, and the US dollar.

The Van Macro Sentiment Indicators are based on the outlook of hedge fund managers employing a macro view and who manage, in aggregate, in excess of $30 billion in assets.

According to the survey, the S&P 500 is expected to decline in November by 42% of the managers, although this is something of an improvement on the 56% that held the same view in October.

Meanwhile, 46% of fund managers expect the price of the US Treasury 10-year Note to decline in the month ahead, again a slight improvement in sentiment compared to the 51% who were bearish last month. One third expect prices to rise in this market.

Bearish sentiment was however, most pronounced on the prospects for the US dollar in November, with 63% of the fund managers anticipating a fall in the value of the greenback against other currencies by month’s end, up from the 57% who were bearish in October.

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