Annan's Referendum Plan Is Last Chance For Cyprus Settlement

by Lorys Charalambous, Tax-News.com, Nicosia

03 March 2003

In an attempt to side-step the inability of the Greek and Turkish Cypriot governments to agree on the UN's plan to reunify the divided island of Cyprus, UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan has proposed that the UN's third and final reunification plan should be put to referenda of the two communities before the end of March, allowing just enough time for a re-united island to sign the EU accession treaty on 16th April. The two Cypriot leaders, Rauf Denktash and newly-elected Tassos Papadopoulos, have agreed to meet Kofi Annan in the Hague on March 10th to give their anwers to this proposal.

Annan warned Cyprus yesterday that it would be the end of the line, possibly for ever, if either side refused on March 10 to hold separate referenda on his plan for a settlement. “I want them to come to The Hague to tell me that they are going to put the settlement plan to referendum and that they will let the people decide. I think it's important that the people are given a chance to decide,” Annan said.

At the weekend, Denktash all but stymied the plan: ''The point which was clear was that we should not be going to The Hague to say 'yes'. If the answer is 'no' we should still go and explain to him why it is 'no',” he said. Denktash told reporters that it would not be possible for the people to fully understand what he termed a “complicated plan of so many pages, which makes references to laws and treaties”. Denktash added: “There are parties, the parliament, the NGOs ... who could show a direction to the people. Now, pushing all these aside, you would leave the poor people to face a decision to say yes or no. This is not a correct approach, it is not democratic either."

Papadopoulos was more circumspect. During his swearing in as President on Friday, he promised that his new government would work hard for a quick solution. “We want a solution that is functional because if it is not functional it won't be viable and if it is not viable it can't be permanent,” Papadopoulos said. Historically, he has been a 'hawk' on the Turkish question, although he is doing his best to appear more moderate at present.

In Turkey, ruling Justice and Development (AKP) leader Tayipp Erdogan said: “We want to resolve this issue. That is why we are sweating, that is why we can't sleep at night. This is our worry. ”

Turkey must calculate whether the Cyprus problem is better resolved now or when it begins EU negotiations in, perhaps, 2004. If a divided island is admitted to the EU, it will find itself "an occupying force" on EU territory. But Ankara may calculate that this just makes the bargaining chip worth all the more.

Tayyip Erdogan has repeatedly criticized Denktash for being intransigent in the talks and insisted that a solution should be reached in line with the EU and UN calendar; but he is no autocrat, and many in Turkey are against a solution on the UN's terms. The National Security Council, Turkey's main policy-making body which brings together the civilian leadership and top generals, has seemed to support Denktash.

"It is not the government that makes the decisions on this issue. If I know the Turkish military, they must have ordered Denktash not to resolve the problem," said Hasan Koni, a professor of international relations at Ankara University. "I do not see any chance for a settlement," he added.

Many people feel that the Cyprus issue can only be resolved between the major powers that are involved (the US, the UK, Turkey and the EU). The US has given strong support to the latest UN initiative for referenda. On Saturday, State Department Spokesman Richard Boucher described Kofi Annan's revised proposal for a comprehensive settlement in Cyprus as “just, viable and durable”. But in the past the US has been ambivalent about Cyprus, and its current difficulties with Turkey are unlikely to encourage the US to press for a resolution on terms that would upset the powerful Turkish military.

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