The Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Thursday published
the results of its Article IV consultation with The Bahamas, which was concluded
on November 26, 2007.
The study observed that helped by prudent economic management over the past
30 years, The Bahamas now enjoys the third highest per capita GDP among Western
Hemisphere countries, and social development indicators that compare favorably
with other countries in the region.
Tourism and related activities account for roughly one-third of Bahamian GDP,
and the financial sector, including a dynamic offshore center, account for over
20% of GDP.
Macroeconomic performance has been solid, the IMF went on to reveal. Led by
construction on new resort and second-home projects, the economy grew by close
to 3.5% in 2006; growth is expected to moderate slightly to 3% this year.
Inflation remains low at around 2.5%. The current account deficit increased
sharply to 25.5% in 2006, reflecting imports related to the resort investments
and higher oil imports. The rise in imports has been largely financed by foreign
direct investment, but because of a decline in tourist arrivals, there has also
been some draw down in international reserves.
Macroeconomic policies have been tightened this year, the IMF further observed.
In addition, the budget deficit target for FY 2007/08 (ending June 30) is 1¾%
of GDP compared with a preliminary outturn of about 2½% of GDP in FY
2006/07.
The authorities' see the maintenance of macroeconomic stability and a positive
investment climate as the best way to encourage private investment and ensure
continued growth in employment and standards of living.
Against this background, discussions focused on the economic outlook, policies
to maintain macroeconomic stability, and structural reforms to enhance overall
efficiency.
In a statement, the IMF Executive Board announced that:
"Executive Directors commended the authorities' solid track record of
prudent macroeconomic management, which has helped The Bahamas attain the highest
standard of living in the Caribbean. Despite a recent decline in tourist arrivals,
macroeconomic performance continues to be favorable, with strong growth, low
inflation, and a relatively small fiscal deficit and public debt. "
"The sharp increase in the external current account deficit mainly reflects
construction-related imports that are financed by foreign direct investment."
"At the same time, Directors observed that the external environment poses
several challenges and risks going forward, including the relatively slow economic
growth projected for the United States next year, a highly competitive regional
tourism market, high oil prices, and the country's vulnerability to natural
disasters. In this context, they welcomed the authorities' strong commitment
to maintaining macroeconomic stability, which is backed by the supportive macroeconomic
policy framework in place."
"Directors also noted that the business climate remains very attractive,
and that there is substantial ongoing and planned investment in the tourism
sector. In light of this, Directors generally considered that overall The Bahamas'
medium-term economic prospects remain favorable."
"However, Directors reiterated that diversification of both the tourism
product and the overall economy will be crucial for strong and sustained economic
growth."
The statement continued:
"Directors supported the government's goals of balancing the budget and
reducing debt to 30-35% of GDP by 2012. To ensure the achievement of these targets,
Directors welcomed the authorities' commitment to control current spending,
tighten budget constraints on public entities, and improve tax administration;
and they commended the authorities' intention to privatize the telecommunications
and electricity companies."
"Directors welcomed the authorities' plans to streamline import duty and
tax concessions, and encouraged the authorities to consider the progressive
introduction of a value added tax or a domestic consumption tax to replace trade
taxes."
"Directors were of the view that the fixed exchange rate has served The
Bahamas well, particularly by enhancing the investment climate and keeping inflation
low. They welcomed the indications that competitiveness is adequate, and noted
the strong national consensus in favor of safeguarding the peg."
"Directors welcomed the authorities' plans to gradually remove exchange
controls. They emphasized that this process will need to be supported by an
appropriate macroeconomic policy framework, an adequate level of international
reserves, and a strong financial regulatory and prudential framework."
"In this regard, Directors welcomed the central bank's actions to curb
credit growth, both to allow a build-up of international reserves and to reduce
the economy's vulnerability to shocks. Directors encouraged the use of market-based
monetary policy instruments to improve the effectiveness of monetary policy,
make credit allocation more efficient, and help develop the domestic capital
market. They supported continued technical assistance from the IMF and the Caribbean
Regional Technical Assistance Center to improve the central bank's operational
framework."
It concluded:
"Directors observed that The Bahamas' financial system remains sound and
well regulated."
"They commended the authorities' efforts to further strengthen the regulatory
and supervisory framework and bring it to international standards, including
by modernizing the regime to combat money laundering and terrorism financing
and introducing a risk-based approach to supervision."