As Washington buzzes with rumours on who will replace Paul O'Neill and Lawrence
Lindsey in the President's economic team, the White House is concentrated on
readying an economic stimulus plan that will underpin the stuttering economy,
seen by the President as the one weakness that could undermine his re-election
bid in two years' time.
The package, worth around $300 bn over the next ten years, is expected to consist
mostly of a variety of tax cuts, and will focus on incentives for work and investment,
but will include tax breaks for middle- and lower-income consumers in order
to secure the backing of enough moderate Democrats to ensure passage in the
Senate.
The White House apparently thinks that major parts of the package can be paid
for by reform to the nation's Medicare system, where spending is mushrooming
out of control, but Democrats are unlikely to support any proposals which could
reduce the level of care available to poorer families.
The economic-growth package is highly likely to include a reduction in taxes
on corporate dividends, either for shareholders or the companies themselves.
Double taxation of dividends in the US has long been seen as a brake on corporate
investment, and reducing it would likely be at least partly self-financing through
increased tax on stock gains and higher corporate profits. More generous depreciation
rules for corporations are a possibility, and savings incentives are also on
the agenda.
The Democrats' hand in the Senate was slightly strengthened over the weekend
when Mary Landrieu just succeeded in being re-elected in Louisiana; the Republican
advantage will now be 51:49. The Democrat platform remains that the administration's
supply-siders are ignoring the poor while loading up their richer supporters
with tax breaks. "We need short-term stimulus for this economy," said
Sen. Joseph Lieberman on Fox News Sunday. "That means putting money into
the hands of middle-class families, working families."
On the same program, Democrat Senator Jon Corzine talked about a package that
would include action to temporarily eliminate payroll taxes as well as dividend
taxes. "I think there's actually reason to consider some move with regard
to dividends, but it has to be within an overall, comprehensive package, one
that also includes breaks for average consumers", he said.