Whilst many analysts are of the opinion that 2006 is unlikely to see a return
to the days of double-digit returns for hedge funds, these increasingly popular
alternative investment vehicles are expected to continue to play an important role in helping
wealthy investors to offset the risks of traditional long plays in the equity
markets.
By the end of the year, hedge funds are expected to have returned on average
about 7% - the lowest since 2002 and down from 9.5% in 2004 - and unless there
is a return to volatility in the markets, analysts expect more of the same in
2006.
"In broad terms hedge funds are going to disappoint again next year,"
said Hilary Wakefield, a director at EFG private bank, according to Reuters.
"Hedge funds will need a lot of volatility, something to really get things
moving, to make good progress," Wakefield added.
To a degree, the hedge fund industry has become a victim of its own success
as the value of assets under management in the sector has risen from $500 billion
to more than $1 trillion in the space of five years. This has meant an explosion
in the amount of money chasing the same profit opportunities ironing out the
market inefficiencies that made hedge funds successful in previous years.
However, because hedge funds can be much more flexible in their trading approach
than conventional equity fund managers by selling short and investing in all
manner of financial instruments from equities to commodity derivatives, their
returns have a low correlation to stocks and bonds which means that even when
hedge funds are not pulling in big returns, they, by definition, can act as
a hedging tool against a possible downturn in the stock markets.
"If there are problems in the world, then hedge funds can reduce the overall
volatility of the returns in your portfolio," observed Wakefield.
"That is the attraction for institutions who have become much more concerned
about capital preservation," Wakefield added.