Just five days after
the inauguration of Vicente Fox as President of Mexico, his finance
minister, Francisco Gil Diaz, presented a budget to Congress yesterday
which includes a halving of the fiscal deficit from 1% to 0.5%
of GDP and a major improvement in tax collection which brought
in a meagre 11% of GDP last year - even worse than Russia, on
13%. Of course, such figures refer to the measured economy, not
to the whole economy. In Russia the black economy is reckoned
to represent 50% of the total, and the situation may not be much
better in Mexico.
In order to achieve
the forecast 6% improvement in collections, Mr Gil Diaz is offering
a tax amnesty covering the last four years for those taxpayers
who file tax returns for 2000. He also plans to simplify the intimidating
tax-filing process and will encourage different payment methods
including on-line filing.
The $150bn budget
assumes growth of only 4.5% next year, down from a sparkling 7.1%
this year, and reflecting an expected downturn in the US economy,
together with lower oil prices, the two main exogenous factors
impacting Mexico's economic performance.
This budget is seen
as conservative, and will support efforts by the central bank
to meet an inflation target of 6.5 per cent next year.
Vicente Fox, a former
Coca-Cola executive, has long said he plans to fight Mexico's
social problems with stable economic strength, rather than by
handing money to the country's poor, as former Mexican governments
have tended to do, enlarging the fiscal deficit and stoking inflation.
In fact his budget largely continues a track laid down last year
under former President Ernesto Zedillo, using austerity measures
to cut the country's fiscal deficit.
Fox now faces the
challenge of pushing the budget through a divided Congress; his
administration professes confidence that the budget will be easily
passed by its Dec. 31 deadline, but the former ruling party will
likely push for higher spending to fight poverty and improve education
and health.