Last week, Japan's cabinet approved a budget for the next financial year, starting
in April, totalling 81.8 trillion yen, of which little more than half is to
be financed by tax revenue; 45% of expenditure is to be financed by bond issuance,
taking debt to more than 140% of GDP.
Some of the borrowing is earmarked for the country's bombed-out banking sector,
which is finally being put to the sword by Financial Services Minister Heizo
Takenaka, who in his new role as chief banking regulator is applying stiff new
rules to bank accounting. Against stiff resistance, he is still planning to
force changes in accounting methods so that banks can no longer count deferred
tax credits as part of core capital, and will lean on banks to adopt discounted
cash flow valuation of loans, exposing many loan books as hollow.
The government says that the nation's banks have more than 40 trillion yen
in bad debts, but private sector estimates of the amount range as high as 100
trillion yen.
Mr Takenaka welcomed news of restructuring plans by UFJ Bank and Sumitomo Mitsui
Financial Group: "It is difficult to evaluate some of the restructuring
plans released recently over the short term but I take recent developments positively,"
he said. "I would like banks to continue [restructuring] in line with the
government's financial revival plan," he said.
On Saturday, Mr Takenaka said Japan's top priority next year would be ending
the persistent price declines hobbling its economy, after figures were released
showing that consumer prices fell last month for the 38th month in a row by
0.8%. He told an Osaka business symposium the key issue was that the Bank of
Japan had not yet spelt out how it planned to tackle deflation. Mr Takenaka
said the government had now clarified its fiscal policy and was now hoping for
a matching monetary policy. This may involve replacement of the current head
of the Bank of Japan, whose term expires in March, and who is widely seen as
ineffective.
Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi said at the weekend that Japan had
been hurt by the strength of the yen: "It is a fact that a strong yen has
damaged the Japanese economy, in a sense," he said, but added that he was
optimistic. "September earnings reports show that companies are posting
better results so I want people to be more confident. It's not good to be too
pessimistic," he said. "There were views that the Japanese economy
would post no growth in fiscal 2002 but it actually grew by 0.9 per cent."