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Ireland Growing Out of Euro-Zone?
Jeremy Hetherington-Gore, Tax-news. com, London

30 May 2000

The release last week of the Irish Central Bank's report for 1999 was an occasion for mixed rejoicing over the powerful performance of the Irish economy and lamentation over the economy's increasingly dangerous situation, graphically described by the Bank of Ireland's chief economist Jim Power as 'up the creek without a paddle'. He says that euro-zone monetary conditions are currently 'totally inappropriate for a economy whose gross domestic product grew 11% last year'.

The Governor of the Central Bank, Maurice O'Connell, was very direct. He said that the economy was showing signs of overheating, and that expected growth of 8.25% in 2000 was unsustainable. He expressed himself as 'uneasy' about inflation, up 4.9% in the year to April, said that house price rises were excessive, and drew particular attention to the rise in private credit, up nearly 30% year-on-year compared to a euro-zone average of only 10-11%.

Mr O'Connell expressed the powerlessness felt by many a euro-zone finance minister or central banker: "Remember we can take no action on interest rates or exchange rates, they're gone. We can no longer put a cap on credit either. So you're reduced to things like incomes policy and things like fiscal policy."

No-one quite knows what will happen. Jeremiahs say that a sub-optimal currency area such as the euro-zone will collapse under the strains of accommodating such a disparate bunch of un-linked economies. Optimists must be hoping that a new economic paradigm has been found in which many different types of flower can bloom in the same bed.

Free-market economists delight in the idea that a government can be prevented from interfering in the conduct of its own economy. National euro-zone administrations have lost their power, but it has not been inherited (yet) by any central euro-institution, other than the ECB, which works by nudging the euro-tiller now and then, and moaning quite a lot in public. It would be a delicious irony if it turned out that the control-freaks in Brussels have improved the economic performance of low-tax economies like Ireland by arrogating their economic sovereignty and then finding themselves unable to use it.

Some theorists believe that the severity of economic boom-and-bust cycles is exacerbated by governmental attempts to control them. Here is a marvellous test case: if the Irish government keeps its cool, the market may find its own way out of an impending crash; on the other hand, economic laws may be ineluctable, and the Irish economy may already have bought a one-way ticket to disaster.

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