The release last week of the Irish Central
Bank's report for 1999 was an occasion for mixed rejoicing over
the powerful performance of the Irish economy and lamentation
over the economy's increasingly dangerous situation, graphically
described by the Bank of Ireland's chief economist Jim Power as
'up the creek without a paddle'. He says that euro-zone monetary
conditions are currently 'totally inappropriate for a economy
whose gross domestic product grew 11% last year'.
The Governor of the
Central Bank, Maurice O'Connell, was very direct. He said that
the economy was showing signs of overheating,
and that expected growth of 8.25% in 2000 was unsustainable. He
expressed himself as 'uneasy' about inflation,
up 4.9% in the year to April, said that house price rises were
excessive, and drew particular attention to the rise in private
credit, up nearly 30% year-on-year compared to a euro-zone average
of only 10-11%.
Mr O'Connell expressed
the powerlessness felt by many a euro-zone finance minister or
central banker: "Remember we can take no action on interest
rates or exchange rates, they're gone. We can no longer put a
cap on credit either. So you're reduced to things like incomes
policy and things like fiscal policy."
No-one quite knows
what will happen. Jeremiahs say that a sub-optimal currency area
such as the euro-zone will collapse under the strains of accommodating
such a disparate bunch of un-linked economies. Optimists must
be hoping that a new economic paradigm has been found in which
many different types of flower can bloom in the same bed.
Free-market economists
delight in the idea that a government can be prevented from interfering
in the conduct of its own economy. National euro-zone administrations
have lost their power, but it has not been inherited (yet) by
any central euro-institution, other than the ECB, which works
by nudging the euro-tiller now and then, and moaning quite a lot
in public. It would be a delicious irony if it turned out that
the control-freaks in Brussels have improved the economic performance
of low-tax economies like Ireland by arrogating their economic
sovereignty and then finding themselves unable to use it.
Some theorists believe
that the severity of economic boom-and-bust cycles is exacerbated
by governmental attempts to control them. Here is a marvellous
test case: if the Irish government keeps its cool, the market
may find its own way out of an impending crash; on the other hand,
economic laws may be ineluctable, and the Irish economy may already
have bought a one-way ticket to disaster.