ING Financial Markets has warned that the SAR's sluggish economy could swell
the jurisdiction's deficit to around HK$74 billion this fiscal year.
Speaking to the Hong Kong Standard, chief economist for the Netherlands-based
investment bank, Tim Condon predicted that if this comes to pass, ratings agencies
such as Moody's Investor Services are likely to downgrade the jurisdiction's
ratings outlook.
'The growth slowdown highlights the government's fiscal troubles,' Mr Condon
observed this week. 'Government spending was on track, but revenue fell short.'
He urged the Hong Kong authorities to attempt to spur growth through cuts in
profits and salaries taxes, and recommended that integration with mainland China
be accelerated.
Cautioning against any tightening of public spending, the ING economist explained
that: 'We continue to believe the government's approach to dealing with the
fiscal deficit will make matters worse. Contradictory fiscal policies in a slow-growing
deflationary economy helped lead Argentina to ruin.'
The SAR government was also recently warned by business advisory group, the
Economist Corporate Network (ECN) that its forecast for economic growth was
too optimistic given the current climate:
'[The government's] 1.5% forecast is rather optimistic because the third quarter
will be heavily affected by the US economy and its second quarter growth,' ECN
regional economist Connie Bolland observed earlier this month, predicting a
more far conservative 0.7% growth rate for this year.