The International Monetary Fund on Monday published the preliminary conclusions
from its Article IV Consultation with Canada.
The IMF mission stated that Canada has enjoyed an enviable macroeconomic performance
over the past decade, observing that:
"Reflecting prudent macroeconomic policies, structural reforms, and favorable
external conditions, GDP has grown faster than in other G-7 countries, inflation
has been low and stable, and fiscal balances have been in surplus. The sound
policy framework will help policymakers in navigating the more challenging environment
going forward and support macroeconomic and financial stability."
However, it suggested that: "After five years of strong growth, the economy
is forecast to slow in the next few quarters."
The major macroeconomic challenges for the country over the coming period were
outlined by the IMF as:
- Managing conflicting risks from domestic demand and external/ financial
conditions;
- Adjusting to currency appreciation and promoting rapid productivity growth;
- Safeguarding financial stability given financial strains while fostering
innovation; and
- Further improving the tax system's efficiency while maintaining a sound
fiscal position.
On the topic of safeguarding financial stability while fostering innovation,
the International Monetary Fund stated that:
"Overall, the financial system appears to be in a position to weather
financial turbulence. Current capital positions allow Canadian banks to absorb
substantial balance sheet losses, and the banks' exposure to the US subprime
market and structured credit products is generally considered to be relatively
limited. But as elsewhere, funding conditions have tightened with the global
repricing of risk. Together with the rise in credit risk from a slowing domestic
economy and banks' exposure to US markets, this is likely to curtail financing
to corporates and households."
It continued:
"While bank regulation and supervision largely meets best practice, the
mission continues to believe that securities markets would benefit from a single
regulator. The fragmented, provincial system of securities market regulation
imposes high costs on issuers and investors. The automatic interjurisdictional
recognition of decisions of the home regulator under the passport system is
a significant step forward. Nonetheless, as in past years, the mission believes
that a single regulator is the most effective way to lower costs, ensure timely
policy responses, and foster consistent enforcement. More broadly, the regulators
should address new challenges from financial innovation, including establishing
adequate transparency for new products."
Moving on to discuss ways to improve the tax system's efficiency, the IMF observed
that:
"A sound fiscal framework policy has paid off in an enviably strong fiscal
position that makes achieving zero general government net debt by 2021 feasible.
Canada is closer to long-term budget sustainability than other industrial countries,
given 10 consecutive years of budget surpluses. Noting that, under current policies,
public health care spending by provinces is likely to increase rapidly, the
mission welcomes the government's reaffirmation of its objective to eliminate
general government net debt by 2021. This, together with health care reform,
will help to alleviate long-term pressures from population aging."
"The mission shares the government's view that the budgetary overperformance
provides room for tax relief while maintaining small budget surpluses. With
higher-than-expected nominal GDP growth and corporate income tax revenue in
the current fiscal year, the federal surplus was set to exceed the planned surplus
by ¾ of a percentage point of GDP before the tax relief proposed in the
2007 Economic Statement. While recognizing the risk that some of the recent
revenue gains may not be permanent, the mission welcomes this proposed tax relief
as well as planned one-off additional debt reduction. While small in size, the
related demand stimulus in 2008 will be welcome, given weaker growth prospects."
It concluded:
"As the mission observed last year, the fiscal room should be used to
reduce high marginal effective tax rates on capital, saving, and labor to foster
efficiency. Instead, the main tax relief measure in the Statement is a one percentage
point cut in the federal GST rate to 5%."
"That said, the mission welcomes progress in reducing high marginal effective
tax rates, including the proposed one percentage point cut in the federal corporate
tax rate in 2008 and its subsequent gradual reduction to 15% by 2012, the cut
in the lower personal income tax rate, and the introduction of a Working Income
Tax Benefit."
"The mission agrees with the government that marginal effective tax rates
on capital should be further reduced significantly through the harmonization
of the sales tax base in some provinces with that of the federal GST, and it
encourages the government to facilitate this by providing explicit budgetary
incentives."