The International Monetary Fund (IMF) last week released the conclusions of
its Article IV consultation with South Africa, which ended on August 2.
The IMF observed that:
"Real GDP grew by 4.9% in 2005 and continued to grow strongly in 2006.
High growth was driven by strong domestic demand, with private consumption and
investment spending supported by low interest rates and improved sentiment.
Household consumption was also boosted by rising incomes and wealth effects
from buoyant housing and stock prices. After a slowdown in late 2005, partly
reflecting temporary supply shocks, real GDP grew by 4.2 percent in the first
quarter of 2006."
"The strong pace of economic activity led to higher employment. Total
employment grew by 5.7 percent in the year to September 2005. However, the unemployment
rate remained broadly unchanged at 26.7 percent, as labor force participation
rose significantly."
The report went on to reveal that:
"The fiscal deficit fell to 0.3% of GDP in FY2005/06, bringing government
debt down to 34.1 percent of GDP by March 2006. The narrowing of the deficit
mainly reflected a large increase in tax revenue, owing to strong economic activity
and firm enforcement."
It continued:
"Directors considered that the economic outlook for South Africa is broadly
positive. Continued solid policy implementation and favorable external conditions
should establish the foundations for sustained growth."
"Directors viewed uncertainties in the external environment as the main
source of risk to the outlook. A deceleration in global activity would affect
South Africa owing to the structure of the country's exports. A more immediate
risk would be a weakening sentiment for emerging market economies and a continuation
of the recent slowdown in capital flows. Directors also noted that, in light
of these factors, the external current account deficit could represent a point
of vulnerability. Nonetheless, they considered that, based on its strong fundamentals,
South Africa is well placed to face these risks."