An International Monetary Fund (IMF) staff mission led by Dominique Desruelle,
Chief of the Central America Division in the Western Hemisphere Department last
week concluded a visit to Costa Rica.
The IMF mission visited San José, Costa Rica during between 30th June
and 3rd July to review recent developments and discuss policies for 2008.
The mission met with Central Bank Governor Francisco de Paula Gutiérrez,
Finance Minister Guillermo Zúñiga, Financial Sector Superintendent
Óscar Rodríguez, members of the Monetary Board, other senior government
officials, and representatives of the private sector.
In a statement released following the mission's visit, the IMF observed that:
"As other countries in the region, Costa Rica is facing an increasingly
challenging global environment, marked by high commodity prices and a slowing
US economy. Economic growth has been resilient to these large adverse shocks
so far: it slowed moderately in the first few months of the year, but remained
supported by domestic demand. However, the surge in commodity prices combined
with domestic demand pressures pushed inflation well up. Food prices have risen
twice as fast as headline inflation, which disproportionately affected the poor."
"Economic activity is expected to slow below its trend rate of about 5
½ percent over 2008-2009, while the current account could widen further,
reflecting a significantly higher oil import bill and slower export growth.
The main risk to this outlook stems from further global shocks, particularly
commodity price surges, which would have an additional adverse impact on growth,
inflation, and the external current account position."
"The mission noted that Costa Rica was in a significantly better position
to respond to such shocks now than in the past, thanks to a marked improvement
in public finances, sizable foreign exchange reserves, steps taken toward a
more flexible exchange rate regime in the context of the transition to inflation
targeting, and measures already adopted to strengthen the financial system."
It continued:
"The mission welcomed the authorities' initiatives to cushion the impact
of higher food prices on the most vulnerable segments of society, while allowing
the necessary pass-through of international price shocks to domestic prices.
In particular, it commended the decision to focus on well-targeted social programs,
including increased conditional cash transfers, child nutrition, and income
support to families in extreme poverty. The mission also welcomed the envisaged
technical assistance to small farmers to boost the supply of food staples."
"The mission concurred with the authorities on the need to tighten monetary
policy in order to stop and, then, reverse the increase in underlying inflation.
It welcomed the central bank's recent decisions to increase its policy rate,
but stressed the need to raise interest rates further in the period ahead. It
also welcomed the submission to congress of a bill to recapitalize the central
bank. A prompt and substantial recapitalization of the central bank would increase
the effectiveness of monetary policy."
The IMF mission further congratulated the authorities on the pursuit of a sound
fiscal policy, which has helped contain demand pressures and reduce public debt.
It also acknowledged their continued efforts to improve tax collection, which
created space for greater social and infrastructure spending. The mission encouraged
the authorities to continue to exercise fiscal discipline to support the anti-inflation
efforts of the central bank, and to accommodate much needed increases in targeted
social spending within the 2008 budget.
"While addressing the global shocks is clearly a short-term policy priority,
the mission and the authorities agreed on the need to pursue the medium-term
reform program. In this regard, the mission welcomed the progress made on the
CAFTA-DR implementation agenda. It concurred on the priority given to enacting
legislation to enhance financial sector regulation and supervision. It reiterated
that further measures will need to be taken in this area, including improvements
in the legal protection of supervisors. The authorities and the mission agreed
that the approval of a substantial tax reform, including a revamp of the income
tax and Value Added Tax (VAT), remains a priority."
The statement concluded by announcing that:
"The IMF will maintain a close policy dialogue with the authorities, keep
exchanging information on global developments, and provide technical assistance
in a number of areas in the period ahead. The next Article IV mission is tentatively
scheduled for December 2008."