On 23rd May, the Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) concluded its Article IV consultation with Switzerland.
In their report, the IMF Executive Directors welcomed Switzerland's impressive
growth performance over the last four years, and commended the authorities on
their strong macroeconomic policies and structural reform efforts.
Directors noted that the financial turbulence of the past year — and the
continued tensions, especially in the interbank markets — have generated
risks for the Swiss financial sector.
Although the economy has weathered these challenges well, Directors considered
that, along with the slowdown in US activity and the prospect of slower growth
in Europe, these developments are projected to decelerate Swiss growth in the
period ahead.
Against this background, Directors observed that the key policy priority is
to maintain domestic financial stability, which, given Switzerland's strong
international linkages, would also contribute to international stability.
They commended the authorities for their vigorous response to date to limit
the fallout from the financial turbulence.
In particular, Directors welcomed the authorities' well-timed injections of
liquidity into the banking system in concert with other major central banks,
and their enhanced oversight of the major banks and insurance companies.
They also praised the authorities for their proactive sharing of information
and lessons learned with other regulators, and their smooth coordination of
supervisory activities, while calling for continued work on measures that will
further enhance financial sector stability.
This work should focus on the following
four areas, according to the report: better risk assessment and risk management; increased capital buffers;
more liquidity; and greater disclosure.
Looking ahead, Directors noted the importance of stronger buffers to protect
the financial system.
They noted that recent developments will likely lead to higher capital requirements
under the Basel II framework, and that additional capital may be needed to cushion
against unforeseen risks.
In this regard, most Directors considered that a leverage ratio approach envisaged
by the authorities could serve as a useful complement to the existing regime,
if implemented alongside Basel II and with appropriate safeguards.
Additionally, Directors welcomed Switzerland's development of a stronger
stress testing framework to improve liquidity risk management, and a more active
review of banks' contingency plans and liquidity management policies.
In the insurance sector, Directors noted progress in implementing the Swiss
Solvency Test for insurance companies, and welcomed the strengthened on-site
supervision and international supervisory cooperation.
Directors further welcomed the recent appointment of the board and senior management
of the new financial regulator (FINMA), and emphasized the need to ensure that
the agency has the appropriate level of supervisory capabilities and resources.
Directors recommended further strengthening of on-site supervision capabilities,
with appropriate reliance on external auditors to monitor regulatory compliance.
They also stressed the importance of building on existing cross-border supervisory
arrangements for global groups, and securing more active support of host supervisors
in maintaining the stability of global operations.
Directors agreed that the calibration of monetary policy has correctly balanced
the risks to inflation and economic growth.
They indicated that the effective easing of monetary policy has been appropriate
given the potentially serious downside risks to the economy and the projected
decline of inflation. Looking ahead, Directors welcomed the authorities' commitment
to continue to monitor developments carefully.
A number of Directors considered that the relatively contained inflation outlook
provides some scope for further easing. A number of other Directors believed
that the current monetary stance remains appropriate at the present juncture.
Regarding the operational framework, the IMF Directors noted that its flexibility has
served the economy well, and looked forward to further analysis of its signalling
and substantive effects.
Directors commended the authorities for the country's strong fiscal performance. They
emphasized that, following the small fiscal stimulus anticipated in 2008, further
progress toward long-term fiscal sustainability will require continued fiscal
prudence and structural reforms.
In this regard, Directors welcomed the Long-Term Sustainability Report as an
important step in raising awareness of the needed actions, and looked forward
to the early formulation of specific policy measures. Directors further noted that savings
could be achieved through a consolidation of governmental responsibilities as
outlined in the Task Evaluation Program.
They also welcomed the proposal to extend the debt-brake rule to incorporate
"extraordinary" expenditures.
In reviewing the factors behind Switzerland's large external current account
surplus, Directors considered that the surplus largely reflects structural factors,
notably the country's high per capita income, its aging population, and its
position as a major financial center.
They also noted that accounting norms and the specificities of the investment
flows tend to overstate the surplus relative to other countries.
Taking into account these considerations, Directors generally agreed that the
exchange rate appears to be broadly in line with fundamentals.