Hong Kong's Monetary Performance Unruffled By SAR's Travails
by Mary Swire, Tax-News.com, Hong Kong
02 September 2003
In spite of political turmoil and a further batch of rumours about changes
to Hong Kong's currency peg to the US dollar, statistics published last Friday
by the Hong Kong Monetary Authority show an almost completely unruffled monetary
system.
Total deposits with authorized institutions grew for the fourth consecutive
month by 0.6% in July. The increase was attributable to a 1.6% rise in foreign
currency deposits, which exceeded a decline of 0.2% in Hong Kong dollar deposits.
On a seasonally adjusted basis, Hong Kong dollar M1 grew by 0.8% during the
month and by 18.2% from a year ago. Unadjusted Hong Kong dollar M2 and M3 both
dropped by 0.1% during the month, but rose by 1.9% on a year-on-year comparison.
The Hong Kong dollar remained stable during the reporting period. Interbank
interest rates increased modestly, says HKMA, correcting for the earlier pricing-in
of a rate-cut of over 25 bp in the US. Meanwhile, their spreads against the
US dollar counterparts firmed slightly. The Monetary Base rose marginally from
HK$252.16 billion to HK$252.59 billion, attributable to a rise in the outstanding
amount of Certificates of Indebtedness. However, the increased political uncertainty,
the resignation of the Financial Secretary, and rumours of softened support
from the IMF for the Linked Exchange Rate system led to a widening of the interest
rate differentials in the latter part of the period. During the period, the
1-month and 3-month spreads increased by 9 bp and 7 bp respectively and both
closed at 7 bp. The 12-month spread also rose by 7 bp to close at 20 bp.
The Monetary Base, which comprises Certificates of Indebtedness (CIs), Government-issued
currency notes and coins in circulation, the Aggregate Balance, and Exchange
Fund Bills and Notes, increased marginally from HK$252.16 billion to HK$252.59
billion during the reporting period. The market value of outstanding Exchange
Fund paper decreased slightly from HK$123.26 billion to HK$122.78 billion. All
issues of Exchange Fund Bills and Notes were well received by the market.
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