After speculation in Hong Kong that the authorities were considering
a change to the SAR's currency peg to the US dollar were firmly denied
by Financial Secretary Antony Leung, the head of the territory's monetary
authority on Wednesday added his own voice to a strong defence of the
peg.
In an address to the Hong Kong Institute of Bankers later posted on the
HKMA Web site, Mr Yam said no exchange rate system was perfect but critics
of the limitations imposed by the peg needed to answer a key question:
"It is - are these limitations so severe, so constricting, so damaging
as to outweigh the advantages that the link brings to Hong Kong, or to
outweigh the risks and uncertainties that would inevitably arise if we
were to change or abandon the link? I think that the answer has to be
no," he said.
The peg, which has been in place for almost 20 years, fixes the currency
at HK$7.78 to US$1. The authorities have had to defend it from time to
time in the past - during the 1998 Asian crisis the government spent nearly
HK$120bn to support it.
Yesterday's unequivocal statements of support seem to have quelled speculation:
the Hong Kong dollar one-year forward yesterday traded at a 100- to 120-basis
point premium to the spot rate, against a 300-basis point premium late
last week when rumours were at their height.
Mr Yam said that the HKMA was under no illusions about the limitations
imposed by the link, and agreed that the system ruled out using the exchange
rate to adjust more quickly to sudden shocks. It was also true that it
tied Hong Kong to US monetary policy at times when their economic cycles
might not be synchronised and that it was a cause of asset price inflation
in the 1990s and more recently deflation.
On the challenge of competitiveness, however, while the nominal exchange
rate was relevant, the real effective exchange rate (Reer) - which takes
into account inflation rates and trade patterns - was more relevant to
measuring competitiveness. On this measure, Hong Kong's currency was delivering
competitive gains, Mr Yam said: "The Reer for the Hong Kong dollar
has depreciated by around 13 per cent since the crisis period in 1998.
During the same period, the Reers for Asian currencies have appreciated
by various degrees, reflecting both a rein on nominal exchange rates as
well as higher domestic inflation."
In the best of times, de-pegging the currency could lead to uncertainty
and instability, Mr Yam said, "If, heaven forbid, de-pegging were
to be carried out in the conditions that we have now, then we might add
a third word to uncertainty and instability: catastrophe. At this time
of great global uncertainty and local distress, our efforts should be
directed towards building stability, not destroying or undermining it."