Monetary Authority Chief Executive, Joseph Yam has refuted reports that Hong
Kong officials lobbied Mainland authorities to allow changes to the way the
Hong Kong dollar is linked to the US dollar.
The Hong Kong dollar has been the object of speculative activity in recent
days, but Yam stressed on Thursday that the government is determined to defend
the currency peg.
The authority injected HK dollars into the market on October 31 to purchase
US$1 billion as the HK dollar exchange rate persistently hit HK$7.75 to the
US dollar, the upper limit of the trading band. The injection would bring the
HK dollar balance in the banking system to $10.6 billion after Thursday's settlement,
Yam stated.
Noting that the action will make interbank rates fall, he expressed the belief that local banks will
lower their interest rate following the US Federal Reserve's rate cut.
In his regular 'Viewpoint' column published Thursday on the Monetary Authority's website,
Yam argued that it is a matter of judgment for the Authority whether or not there is
a need to take action within the Convertibility Zone. He acknowledged that Hong Kong has
in the past seen periods in which the exchange rate was stronger than 7.8, but
there was a significant interest-rate premium for the Hong Kong dollar over
the US dollar. Conversely, there were periods in which the exchange rate was
weaker than 7.8, but there was a significant interest-rate discount.
"Such anomalies may be quite temporary and the market may adjust, without
the need for us to take action. But they may be quite persistent, to the extent
of creating the possibility of sharp interest-rate adjustments when the Convertibility
Undertaking is eventually triggered, causing similarly sharp and possibly destabilising
reactions in financial markets," Yam observed.
"There may therefore be a case for action within the Convertibility Zone
to normalise the relationship between the exchange rate and interest rates so
as to minimise the possibility of abrupt adjustments in the latter," he
added.
The HKMA chief observed that it may be that the strong-side Convertibility Undertaking will further
be triggered, requiring the authority to buy in more US dollars passively and
inject more Hong Kong-dollar liquidity.
"Whatever the case, and whether or not action within the Convertibility
Zone is taken, the Linked Exchange Rate system has been functioning well to
deliver exchange-rate stability. The government has also reiterated that there
is no plan or intention to change the system in any way (such as re-pegging
at a different level or widening the Convertibility Zone)."