A new study of the hedge fund market by investment bank Putnam Lovell NBF and
consultants New River Inc says that despite a slow-down in the growth of hedge
fund assets this year, investors are likely to continue to pour cash into alternative
investment vehicles over the next ten years.
Earlier this week, hedge fund research house Tremont published its analysis
of fund flows covering the third quarter of 2002, showing that a net $6.8 billion
was added to hedge fund assets during the period, bringing total net inflows
this year to just under $17 billion. Last year's total topped $31 billion.
The Putnam Lovell study estimates that institutional investors and wealthy
individuals will channel $800 billion of new money into hedge funds by 2010,
and that industry assets will rise to $2 trillion. The study assumes that returns
will be flat this year, but will average 9% a year thereafter, resulting in
$700 billion of growth through market appreciation.
"In a world where investors have suffered three straight years of stock
market losses, even anemic recent hedge fund gains are tempting U.S. pension
plans and other institutions to trust their money to 'absolute return' strategies,"
said Joseph R. Hershberger, a Putnam Lovell NBF managing director.
The study predicts that institutions and professional investors will have an
increasing impact on the sector: "The sophistication and rigor that institutional
investors bring to the investment process will serve as an important catalyst
for refining standards of practices," the study says.