A study on the current status and future of the global hedge fund industry released
last week by Van Hedge Fund Advisors International LLC, has predicted that hedge fund assets will continue to grow exponentially over the next ten years,
reaching $6 trillion by 2015.
Van’s white paper predicts that, far from declining in the face of tighter
regulation and recently lacklustre returns, the hedge fund industry will continue
to grow along a similar pattern to the mutual fund industry. Among its findings,
the study concludes that hedge fund assets, now at $1 trillion, will at least
double by 2009, quadruple to $4 trillion by 2013 and sextuple to $6 trillion
by 2015.
"We believe that these projections are conservative," stated George
Van, Chairman.
He continued that:
"Demand for hedge funds is at unprecedented levels and the worldwide capacity
for hedge funds is growing. It took the mutual fund industry 66 years to attain
$1 trillion in assets. It has taken hedge funds ten years less to reach the
same level.
"Mutual funds grew more than fourfold in the seven years between 1990
and 1997, after they had reached $1 trillion in assets. Hedge funds are in the
same growth mode. While they currently are private investments, hedge funds
will become public securities in various forms. This will accelerate their growth."
Van explained that hedge fund industry growth is driven by a fundamental fact:
hedge funds produce better risk-adjusted returns than traditional, long-only
investments.
"Ask the long-time sophisticated hedge fund investors such as Harvard,
Yale, the University of Virginia, large family offices and Swiss banks whether
they agree that hedge funds produce better performance. Ask also the many institutions
that are now investors in hedge funds because their long-only investments plummeted
up to 40% in the recent bear markets while hedge fund investments preserved
capital. The hedge fund industry has grown steadily for 17 years. While it will
take at least another year for it to fully digest recent massive capital inflows,
growth will then again accelerate,” he observed.
Van believes that demand will continue to grow for hedge funds because performance
will improve and because the industry has reached its “tipping point”
where capacity is expanding to meet demand. Hedge funds are also implementing
new strategies and entering new sectors such as energy, private equity, real
estate, middle market lending and asset-backed finance.
The industry is also expanding its reach into new markets in both developed
and emerging economies, including Canada, Europe, Japan, Brazil South Africa,
Hong Kong, Singapore, Taiwan, and Korea. China and India will also add substantial
capacity, the report noted.
The study said that perceived obstacles to growth in the industry, such as
high fees, low liquidity, low transparency, and leverage, will not impede growth.
Indeed, according to VAN, the use of leverage in the hedge fund industry is
a lot less prevalent than commonly thought. The study found that, as of year-end
2004, 20% of hedge funds used no leverage whatsoever while another 50% used
leverage of less than one time their equity, including short positions.
Nor will the requirement to by hedge funds in the US to register with the SEC
impede hedge fund growth, says VAN. This is because the rewards of even a moderately
successful hedge fund will vastly outweigh the new compliance costs.
The report also pointed out the increasingly prominent role of funds of funds
("FOFs") which are growing dramatically. From a few dollars in 2000,
their investments in individual hedge funds now approximate $400 billion, or
about 40% of industry assets. The report forecast that the growth of FOFs will
continue at a faster pace than that of individual hedge funds.
According to the report, the increasing proliferation of hedge funds and their
growing use by smaller investors will force the inevitable: in coming years,
the majority of hedge fund products will be public vehicles.
Van concluded that: "Hedge funds are emerging from a difficult period
that has been caused by positive reasons: their outperformance and the resulting
high demand. For the most part, existing hedge fund strategies are adjusting
to unprecedented demand. New strategies are meeting with success, both in traditional
markets and elsewhere. Industry assets will increase dramatically in coming
years."