The German government is evidently in denial over its fiscal situation: after
the tax commission predicted just a month ago that annual tax collections would
be 1.2% below last year's, the government has now announced that revenues were
down 2.3% from January to November.
This is disastrous news for the government, already in danger of breaching
the Stability Pact 3% of GDP deficit limit. Gehardt Schroder's coalition has
been forcing through a highly unpopular €13.5bn ($13.9bn) supplementary
budget, and is faced with a threatened general strike over pay by public sector
workers.
A finance ministry spokeswoman said bravely that tax inflows in December tended
to be very strong, so that no conclusions ought to be drawn yet regarding the
full year's out-turn.
The government, recently re-elected on a promise that there would be no tax
increases, is under attack from all sides for its miscalculation, and, some
say, deliberate obfuscation of the true economic situation during the election
campaign. What the Government needs to do is to control soaring costs, but it
apparently lacks the spine for it. Like all socialist administrations in difficult
times, it just reaches for its tax collectors instead.
In its recent Economic Survey of Germany, the Organisation for Economic Cooperation
and Development (OECD) warned that German GDP growth over the coming two years
may be weakened if the government continues to rely on tax increases to reduce
its budget deficit level. The organisation says that it expects the deficit
to amount to 3.7% of GDP this year, and 3.3% next year, but to fall to below
the Stability and Growth Pact ceiling by 2004, settling at around 2.6% of GDP.
Although little noticed, the worst news for Germany is probably the flight
of assets that is taking place following the announcement that capital gains
taxes on the sale of securities and real estate are being extended in order
to plug the growing budget deficit.
The country's banks and financial service providers warned in the wake of the
announcement that the CGT extension, coupled with a loosening of German banking
secrecy would make the country far less competitive in attracting investment.
These predictions now appear to be coming to pass.
The German stock exchange, Deutsche Börse has also condemned the CGT plans,
arguing that: 'This will obstruct the capital market as an engine for growth
and jobs.'
Taken alongside the growing numbers of German businesses looking abroad for
cheaper production facilities, a dearth of investible funds in Germany itself
may spell something more serious for the country than a temporary recession.
If Gerhardt Schroder doesn't do something dramatic to reverse the slide, and
soon, it may become irreversible.