After Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao said in Singapore last week that he did not
agree with the cash withdrawal limits placed on Shenzhen banks, they were hastily
withdrawn, leaving the underground pipeline that has been sustaining Hong Kong's
booming stockmarket in full flood.
"The Shenzhen banks' motives are good but they could employ better methods,"
said Wen. "We should have taken measures that were more effective and that
were acceptable to the public."
The Chinese authorities are of course fully aware of the flow of illegitimate
cash to Hong Kong, caused by Chinese exchange controls, and they are under heavy
pressure to liberalize the renminbi. It was this that had led to the now-abandoned
'through-train' proposal to allow investment in Hong Kong stocks through defined
channels.
Shenzhen banks had set a daily withdrawal limit of Renminbi 30,000 on personal
accounts. "If the illegal fund flow is not controlled, it will affect the
financial stability in the country, including Hong Kong," Wen said, but
it's not clear what action Beijing will now take.
It's not just the official banks that operate the pipeline: the local equivalent
of hawali money-exchange networks are involved, and there are many parallel
unofficial links between individuals. In fact the border is so porous that it's
difficult to see how some form of liberalization can be avoided. Local estimates
are that the daily flow of cash between Hong Kong and Shenzhen amounts to several
billion renminbi.
The Hang Seng index briefly touched 31,000 earlier in the month, but has now
fallen to around 26,000 - still up more than 50% this year, fuelled by Chinese
demand, not only though the underground pipeline but also through the QDII route.
More than US$40 billion has been offered to QDII fund launches in just the last
month, according to China's State Administration of Foreign Exchange, and Western
analysts say that more than US$100bn could flow through QDII funds towards Hong
Kong next year.
Part of the attraction for Chinese investors has been the frothy state of mainland
markets. The Shanghai market had risen by 500% in a year, but is now falling
rapidly.
There may have been political reasons behind Beijing's de-railing of the through-train
scheme. Despite explicit support for Hong Kong during the recent party congress,
Beijing maintains an ambivalent attitude towards the SAR's exchange, and the
power shift that was hinted at during the Congress may have seen the liberalizing
tendency lose some of its steam.
Chairman of the State Assets Supervision and Administration Commission Li
Rongrong told reporters that Chinese companies would still be encouraged to
list in Hong Kong, but that the market needed to 'improve' itself. 'We are continuing
the arrangement for companies to be listed in Hong Kong,' he said, adding: 'We
only encourage them. The ultimate decision lies with the companies.'
Li may have meant that the 'red-chip' market should somehow be opened to Chinese
investors. Red-chips (or H-shares) are companies which incorporate and list
outside China, and there have been complaints from Beijing about the exclusion
of mainland investors from such stocks.
Li said he thought that the red-chip problem would be resolved in the near
future, although it doesn't now seem likely that he was referring to the 'through-train'.
"The return of red-chip companies would require endeavour from both sides
- not only us but also Hong Kong," he said. "Our co-operation has
reached a certain level now. I believe this difficult problem will be resolved
soon."
A year ago, Hong Kong seemed set fair to reap a major crop of Chinese IPOs
in 2007, but the reality has been that new share issues on the mainland will
top US$100bn this year (25% of the world's total) while Hong Kong has pulled
in just US$6bn so far, although Alibaba.com's IPO added up to US$2bn to this
total.
Bizzarely, the mainland is said to have been buying shares in HKEx at the same
time as leaning on major companies to list in Shanghai rather than in Hong Kong.
Beijing, it seems, doesn't want Hong Kong to become too powerful; but at the
same time it knows Hong Kong can't be kept down.
Chinese officials deny, meanwhile, that they have been putting money into Hong
Kong Exchanges and Clearing (HKEx), which operates the territory's stock exchange,
although Hong Kong insiders said there unmistakable signs that it was happening.
They believe that newly-formed state investment company CIC, which has been
given $200bn to play with by Beijing, will plough much of this money into Hong
Kong assets.