China To Usurp Hong Kong's Stock Exchange, Says Expert
Mary Swire, Tax-news.com, Hong Kong
16 November 2000
Investment adviser Stuart
Leckie, chairman at Woodrow Milliman Asia, forecast
this week that China's stock markets are expected
to exceed Hong Kong's bourse in terms of market capitalisation
in 2001. Mr Leckie said the mainland would be home
to the largest Asian stock market, excluding Japan,
after China's entry to the World Trade Organisation
(WTO).
The Shanghai and Shenzhen
bourses have already seen a tremendous expansion.
Together they hold over 1,000 listed stocks and the
market capitalisation has already reached US$150bn,
excluding those stocks held by the government. Mr
Leckie said that when the government's holdings in
state-owned enterprises' were taken into account,
total market capitalisation was expected to exceed
US$500bn next year.
According to Mr Leckie,
there are several factors that would facilitate the
growth of the Chinese markets. These include the fact
that there are currently 52 million investors in China
with total savings of US$760bn. Nearly 500 firms are
waiting for a stock market launch in China, and it
is forecast that there will be around 5,000 listed
companies by 2010. However, Mr Leckie warned that
market development was hindered by financial transparency,
accountability and corporate governance.
China's application to
join the WTO was now in its final stages. Work is
already underway to merge China's two bourses, allow
foreign investors to buy yuan-denominated domestic
investors-only Class A shares and allow foreign insurers
to sell more varied insurance products. Mr Leckie
said WTO membership would revolutionise the China's
financial industry and provide a more sound environment
for various financial institutions: 'There is a very
fundamental need to develop long-term institutional
investment in China,' he said. Mr Leckie forecasts
that long-term savings, pension funds, life insurance
and mutual funds will grow significantly over the
next two years.
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