The TSR (Tropical Storm Risk) April forecast update for Atlantic hurricane activity in 2006 continues to anticipate an active season at a high probability level. Based on current and projected climate signals, Atlantic basin and US and falling tropical cyclone activity are forecast to be about 50% above the 1950-2005 norm in 2006.

Worryingly, TSR, a UK-based academic institution, believes there is an 80% probability that activity will be in the top one-third of years historically.

TSR is predicting that there will be eight Atlantic hurricanes in 2006, four of which will develop into "intense" hurricanes.

The Atlantic hurricane Main Development Region (MDR) is the region between the Cape Verde Islands and the Caribbean Lesser Antilles. A storm is defined as having formed within this region if it reached at least tropical depression status while in the area.

TSR accurately predicted that 2005 would also be an active hurricane season.

The hurricane season officially runs from June 1 to November 30. But the 2005 season was the longest on record, finishing on January 6. It was also the most damaging season on record, causing insured losses of 50 billion dollars, according to TSR's figures.