Contracts For Differences - never heard of them?
Well, they may just be going to turn share and bond
trading on its head.
A Contract For Differences is an agreement between
two parties to exchange money based on the behaviour
of a market asset. The two parties can be two investors,
with a broker sitting in the middle who has matched
the trade, and as a stakeholder; or the two parties
can be one investor and the broker.
Suppose John Doe wants to put $10,000 into XYZ Corp:
instead of buying 1,000 XYZ shares at $10, he makes
a contract with Henry Boot, who wants to short XYZ
Corp (via a broker) under which Doe will pay Boot
the amount by which the shares go down, and Boot will
pay Doe the amount by which the shares go up. In a
matched transaction like that, the broker wouldn't
need to hold any underlying stock; when the transaction
is between one investor and a broker, it is usual
for the broker to buy the underlying stock. If the
number of transactions handled by a broker (or a network
of brokers) becomes large enough, then the brokers'
'book' may get close to being balanced, reducing the
need to buy underlying stock, thus reducing the broker's
financing costs and hence the commission he needs
to charge an investor.
Usually, a broker will allow trading on a 5:1 margin
for CFDs, and positions are marked to market daily.
The investor can specify a term in advance, or not,
as he chooses. In a 2-way matched bargain, if one
party wants out before the other, the broker then
takes on the risk, and hedges it or not as he chooses.
CFDs are like individual stock futures contracts,
but they are more flexible. What are the advantages?
- No stamp duty;
- Spreads tend to be lower than on the underlying
shares - when there is a 2-way matched bargain,
there doesn't need to be a spread at all, just an
agreed strike-price;
- Speed and ease of execution, because there are
no custody problems or share certificates, paper
or otherwise;
- 24-on-7 trading.
Problems include what to do about dividends, the
usual dangers of margin trading, and likely lack of
liquidity in a crash when you most need it.
CFDs have been around for professional investors
and institutions for some time - they are a kind of
sophisticated stock borrowing - but have only just
started being available for retail investors, and
no doubt it will take a while before the market for
CFDs has enough depth to be really useful.
But, imagine:
ECNs are rapidly joining together in groupings to
offer after-hours trading in a wide range of stocks
(and now, bonds) from different markets across the
world.
At the same time, the 'legacy' stock exchanges are
falling over themselves in a headlong rush to create
seamless trading across exchanges and time zones.
Are they too late?
What happens if the ECNs merge with the commodity
and currency trading brokers who offer CFDs? Who needs
the legacy exchanges and their brokers?
There is a comparison with the horse-racing industry.
On-course betting makes up only a tiny proportion
of the daily turnover of betting shops and major international
bookies, but until very recently, the starting price
for each horse was set simply according to money arriving
to bookies on the course, who were therefore vital
to the whole process. Bookies were always able to
take some account of off-course money, but it is only
recently that communication systems have become good
enough for the whole market to be reflected in the
starting price. As a result, on-course bookies have
become a picturesque irrelevance.
We need the legacy exchanges for a while longer to
set the prices according to which electronic trading
is conducted - but not much longer. Once the ECNs
have joined together enough to create an international
pool of liquidity which is larger than the pool available
to the old system, and once instruments like CFDs
mean that the market has become independent of stock,
it will be goodbye.
Alongside dematerialisation of the exchanges will
presumably also come dematerialisation of company
financing: instead of selling their shares to the
public, the price discovery mechanism of the CFD market
will 'rate' companies and they will be able to borrow
(or not) according to their ratings. What is the stock
exchange but a price discovery mechanism alongside
a casino? Once the Internet has replaced both functions,
there will be no need for the silk hats and that silly
hammer any more.