The balmy days of budget surpluses and booming tax revenues are over with a
vengeance in the US, as the Bush administration goes cap-in-hand to Congress
for a higher borrowing limit, and the states fight off a threatened budget deficit
in the current year of nearly $50bn.
The request to Congress to increase the current statutory debt ceiling from
$6.4 trillion met with predictable criticism from Democrats, blaming President
Bush's tax cuts for the government's need to borrow more. Indeed the administration
is insouciant about the worsening fiscal situation, and is quite likely to use
a bigger debt envelope to accommodate yet more tax cuts in order to stimulate
the economy.
One place any extra borrowed cash probably won't end up is in the hands of
the states, even though 31 of them face budget deficits. They have whittled
down the total predicted deficit from $50bn to about $17bn, mostly through spending
cuts, but are now looking at really hard choices.
The states' pleas for help from the federal government are likely to fall on
deaf ears, however. The administration doesn't believe that they have done enough
to trim lush spending programs instituted during the gravy years, and points
to Michigan as an example of what can be done: John Engler, a Republican governor
who took office in 1991, inherited a state in recession and running a $1.8 billion
deficit. He cut an entire department, reducing the number of state employees
by 5,000, and terminated a welfare program that provided benefits for 80,000
people. Then he pushed through a series of tax cuts, and the Michigan economy
boomed, sending per capita income up to 2.8% above the national average, thanks
in no small measure to lean government, says the Cato Institute, a libertarian
think thank and advocate of tough cost cutting for states.
Not all economists agree that belt-tightening is the answer to the states'
problems, however. Reduced state budgets are already expected to offset one
half or more of the fiscal stimulus being provided by the federal government
next year. Of course, that's just what supply-siders want: to replace government
expenditure with private sector expenditure. As long as the states don't just
pile back on the taxes when the economy allows it!