The Bahaman Minister of Finance, Hubert A. Ingraham has this week presented
the 2007/2008 Mid-Year Budget Statement to the House of Assembly.
Mr Ingraham began by stating that:
"The introduction of this Mid-Year Budget Statement into the Budgetary
process of Government represents the establishment of a level of transparency
and accountability which is, without doubt, a noteworthy enhancement in the
process of governance."
"Up to this point, the budgetary process as involved in the annual Budget
Communication and supporting documents primarily concerned itself with a consideration
of the economic context of the fiscal period, the articulation of the Government’s
expenditure plans and programmes for the fiscal year, and with the issues relative
to the raising of necessary revenue and finances for the Budget."
"The Mid-Year Budget Statement on the other hand, is concerned primarily
with how the current fiscal budget is actually performing in relation to the
plans and projections put forward as the Government’s goals and objectives
in the Budget Communication."
The Prime Minister then went on to talk about the global economic outlook,
stating that:
"Fears of a US recession, and a general deterioration in credit and severe
strains in financial markets are definitely moderating the outlook for global
economic growth in 2008. The International Monetary Fund projects solid growth
for the year, but sees the overall balance of risks to the global growth outlook
as being on the downside. Projections for global growth for 2008 have been reduced
from 4.8% to 4.1%."
"The projections for growth in the advanced economies have been reduced
significantly. In the United States projected growth has been lowered to 1.5%
for 2008, down from the 2.2% in 2007."
"What began as a test of credit markets related to the sub-prime sector
has clearly extended well beyond this sector to bring pressure on the balance
sheets of major financial institutions. This has put severe strain on credit
markets and is perceived by some as threatening a deeper economic down-turn
in the United States and elsewhere."
On the subject of domestic economic developments, Ingraham explained:
"As regards the Bahamian economy, it is important to bear in mind that
as recently as January, 2008, when the Report of the 2007 Article IV Mission
was published, the growth projections for the Bahamian economy for 2007 was
5.6% in nominal terms or 3.1% in real terms, and for 2008 it was 6.5% in nominal
terms or 4.0% in real terms."
"Thus, even as late as January of this year, the
IMF seemed to believe that the Bahamian economy could grow by 6.5% in nominal
terms or 4.0% in real terms in 2008."
"I should also mention in this context the Standard & Poor’s
report on the Bahamian economy. That report noted the downturn in tourism arrivals
in the first 9 months of 2007, bearing in mind that tourism contributes 60%
of GDP, suggested a shrinking in the construction sector which accounts for
10% of GDP, and also suggested that the financial services sector, which accounts
for 20% of GDP, could be adversely affected by the global crisis in the financial
markets."
"My Government has chosen to take a balanced view of the likely growth
prospects of the Bahamian economy in 2008. The current outlook for strong capital
inflows into productive projects already underway may not be seriously affected
by global or US developments in 2008 and 2009. This could give rise to what
we consider would be a certain element of ‘decoupling’ between the
performance of the US and Bahamian economies in 2008."
"By this I mean that while
normally the health of our tourism sector, and therefore our economy, is heavily
connected to prevailing conditions in North America, in 2008 matters might be
a little different. This is because even if there is a more severe recession
in the US in 2008, the capital inflows and the momentum of some of the major
investment projects in The Bahamas will partially compensate."
"Turning to other economic indicators, despite the surge in crude oil
prices during the year, inflation remained relatively low at 2.5%, up
from the 1.8% of the previous year."
"The ease in credit growth, particularly in the latter half of the year, permitted
liquidity conditions to remain relatively buoyant as the banking system’s
excess reserves expanded by USD105.5m to USD241.7m, compared to a contraction
of USD59.2m the previous year. Excess liquid assets also improved by USD145.4m
to USD154.8m, compared to a contraction of USD103.0m in the previous year."
The Prime Minister concluded his speech by announcing that:
"In this Mid-Year Budget Statement, we remain committed to the limit of
1.8% for the GFS Deficit in the 2007/08 Budget Communication and we are not
departing from it. In this Statement we are making adjustments to Recurrent
and Capital Expenditures but, crucially, we are remaining within the total limits
already approved for these Expenditures."
"Furthermore, we are not making any
adjustments to Revenue. Therefore, there will be no increases in taxes and there
will be no new taxes. I will elaborate on these points as we progress."
"The documentation being circulated with this Mid-Year Budget Statement shows
the progress for the first 6 months of the 2007/08 fiscal year, that is for
the period July to December 2007, of Recurrent and Capital Expenditure and Recurrent
Revenue. The purpose of the data is to enable this Honourable House to assess
the progress being made through the 2007/08 Budget across the whole field of
government expenditure and revenue."